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November
22, 2006
The Last 30 days (Nov'06
Edition)
(c) copyright View from Silicon Valley, 2006. All rights reserved.
House
prices in Silicon Valley make most of their annual increases in the spring. The
six months starting July showed median price changes of:
2003: +0.0%
2004: +1.6%
2005: -0.9%
2006: -5.5% (=
-$38K)
So how are prices
doing lately?
Or "The Next 60 days" able
for "Total Resale Homes" shows:
Median +/-$ 2003 2004
2005 2006
January -$4K
-$47K -0- +$1K
February +$7K
+$52K +$22K +$17K
March -$10K +$39K +$33K +$12K
April
+$15K +$11K +$17K -$10K
May -$4K
+$15K +$8K +$27K
June
+$29K +$9K +$15K +$15K
July -$24K -$9K
-$5K -$20K
August
+$17K -0- +$14K
-$27K
September
-$3K +$5K -$9K +$10K
October
+$10K +$5K +$9K
-$2.5K <== +$22.5K YTD'06
November
-0- -0- +$1K
December -0-
+$10K -$15K
Total +$43K +$90K +$90K
Alert readers will note this is the first time "ever" DQ's price change reported a number
not ending in three zeros...
Comparing
YTD numbers for the last four years, we find
YTD thru 2003 2004 2005 2006
Oct. +$33K +$80K +$104K
+$24K
Let's peek at YTD volume over the last few years.
Resales
Sold 2003 2004 2005 2006
October
1,947 1,753 1,587 1,149
YTD 16,842 19,347 17,460 13,001
Y-o-y volume was negative for
the 23rstraight months (since December, 2004) and 26th out of the last 27 months.
Monthly
realtors' blurbs always focus on current volume
and price vs. last year (y-o-y). To make
thinks a little more interesting, let's invent a "new" statistic "year-over-two-years-ago" or "y-o-2y":
Resale
Units 2003 2004 2005 2006 y-o-y y-o-2y
October
1,947 1,753 1,587 1,149 -27.6% -34.5%
YTD 16,842 19,347 17,460 13,001 -25.5% -32.8%
Part of the rationale for ignoring
y-o-y (and even y-o-2y) volume is the claim there aren't enough properties for sale. Fortunately, we have this data
also:
DQ MLS
January 12 1,687
February 9 1,818
March 9
2,103
April
9 2,194
May 7 2,606
June 8 2,974
July 6 3,185
August 10 3,389
September 7 3,401 4,201 (DQ= +101.6%
YTD)
October 5 3,389 3,899
(DQ= +100.9% YTD)
November 7 3,070 3,496 (DQ=
+82.0% YTD)
MLS data is pulled within a day or two of this missive's creation
(meaning the "as of" date lags ~two weeks).
Breaking down the details:
Peak Since
All Homes
Current Peak Date Peak y-o-y
Santa Clara Co. $658K $690K Jul26'06 -4.6% -0.3%
San Mateo Co. $745K $775K Jul20'05 -3.9% -1.8%
Santa Cruz Co. $699K $720K May26'05 -2.9% 0.0%
Resale Homes
Santa Clara Co. $733K
$772K Jul20'06 -5.1% +2.7%
San Mateo Co.
$800K $830K Aug11'05 -3.7%
0.0%
Santa Cruz Co. $742K $775K Nov04'05 -4.3% -4.2%
San Mateo and Santa Cruz numbers are much more volatile
than Santa Clara County. They bounce, up and down, on lower volume, more than Santa Clara County on a regular basis.
* * * * *
"All Homes" y-o-y:
SantaClara SanMateo
SantaCruz
County County
County
Dec'05 14.8%
12.5% 17.4%
Jan 15.5% 8.2%
13.5%
Feb 14.2% 6.4% 12.6%
Mar 10.2% 3.4%
8.0%
Apr 6.3% -0.1%
11.5%
May 7.0% 3.4%
8.3%
June
4.7% 2.6% 0.0%
July 3.9% -0.1% -3.6%
August 1.7% -2.0% -3.5%
Sept.
2.3% -2.0% 3.2%
Oct. -0.3%
-1.8% 0.0%
SantaClara SanMateo SantaCruz
County County
County
Dec'05 16.5%
10.7% 10.9%
Jan 13.6% 10.8%
4.7%
Feb 13.0% 5.7% -0.3%
Mar 10.6% 3.8%
3.8%
Apr 5.1% 2.5%
10.8%
May 9.4% 2.0%
5.7%
June 9.2%
1.9% 5.7%
July 7.1% 1.9% 1.2%
August 2.8%
1.9% -2.3%
Sept. 4.3% -1.8% 1.1%
Oct.
2.7% 0.0%
-4.2%
In a
curious departure from past practice, DataQuick's press releaes for Bay Area "All
Homes" figures were widely reported while the "Resales Homes" figures seemed to
be less-obviously available.
Bottom Line:
This web site exists because
of the truth behind the old adage about how one can deceive people with, "Lies, damn lies and statistics."
Until further notice, the
above will be offered without commentary, editorial, ranting, raving nor even smarmy sarcasm. (Of course, we also reserve
the right to change our mind.)
* * * * *
The above is not intended as advice to buy, sell or hold any stock, bond,
real estate nor any other financial product or service. Invest at your own risk. (As we do ourselves.)
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